Context:
On 6 October 2025, NITI Aayog released the fourth edition of its flagship trade‑monitoring publication, Trade Watch Quarterly (Q4, FY25), in New Delhi. This edition offers a comprehensive assessment of India’s trade performance in the fourth quarter, sectoral trends, export diversification prospects, and policy insights to strengthen India’s external sector resilience.
Key Highlights from Q4 FY25 Trade Watch:
1. Trade Numbers & Growth
o India’s total trade for Q4 FY25 stood at USD 441 billion, registering about 2.2% year-on-year growth.
o Merchandise exports showed pressure because of subdued global demand in some commodity sectors, but selective sectors like electrical machinery, pharmaceuticals, cereals delivered strong performance.
o Imports rose modestly, driven by demand for capital goods and intermediate inputs.
2. Leather & Footwear
o A focused chapter examines the leather & footwear sector—an employment-intensive segment (employing ~4.4 million).
o While India holds strengths in processed leather and niche segments, its share in the global leather & footwear market is modest (~1.8%).
o The report recommends cluster-based modernization, greater adoption of sustainable and design-driven practices, and better R&D linkage.
3. Trade Diversification & Strategy
o The report emphasizes the urgency of export diversification—both in markets and products—to reduce risk from dependence on a few geographies or commodity segments.
o It also notes that services exports continue to perform robustly, helping cushion merchandise volatility.
o The report highlights the need for agility in adapting to shifting global demand, reworking supply chains, and tapping emerging sectors (EV components, green tech, electronics).
About NITI Aayog:
NITI Aayog, short for the National Institution for Transforming India, is the premier public policy think tank of the Government of India. Established on January 1, 2015, it replaced the erstwhile Planning Commission. Unlike its predecessor, NITI Aayog adopts a bottom-up approach, emphasizing cooperative federalism by actively involving State Governments in the economic policy-making process.
Key Functions:
NITI Aayog operates through various divisions and initiatives:
· Policy and Programme Framework: Develops strategic and long-term policy and programme frameworks and initiatives.
· Cooperative Federalism: Fosters cooperative federalism through structured support initiatives and mechanisms with the States on a continuous basis.
· Monitoring and Evaluation: Actively monitors and evaluates the implementation of programmes and initiatives.
· Think Tank, and Knowledge and Innovation Hub: Acts as a think tank and knowledge and innovation hub, providing advice and encouraging partnerships between key stakeholders and national and international think tanks.
· State Support Mission: An umbrella initiative aimed at fostering structured and institutionalized engagement with States and Union Territories to assist them in achieving their socioeconomic goals by 2047
Conclusion:
The "Trade Watch Quarterly" report underscores India's cautious resilience in the face of global economic challenges. With a focus on strategic policymaking, innovation, and market diversification, India is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities and strengthen its trade performance. The report serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, industry, and academia, offering actionable insights to navigate the complexities of global trade
