Context:

India stands at a pivotal juncture in its development trajectory. The recent NITI Aayog study, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero, outlines a vision in which India achieves a $30-trillion economy by 2047 while attaining net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. These ambitious goals, however, are contingent upon bold energy reforms, substantial investments, and careful management of social and resource trade-offs.

Key Findings of the Report:

• • • The report presents two pathways: a Current Policy Scenario and a more ambitious Net-Zero Scenario. In the latter, India’s GDP expands roughly eleven-fold with only modest growth in energy demand. This decoupling is made possible through enhanced energy efficiency, large-scale electrification, and the adoption of circular-economy practices across sectors.
    • Electricity emerges as the backbone of the energy system, with its share in final energy demand projected to rise significantly under the Net-Zero Scenario.
    • Renewable energy and nuclear power dominate electricity generation by mid-century, while fossil fuels decline to a residual role by 2070.
    • Clean technologies such as green hydrogen, bioenergy, and energy storage play a critical role in decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors.
    • This pathway allows per-capita energy consumption to rise in line with human development needs while remaining well below OECD levels—demonstrating that high economic growth and emissions control can coexist.

Challenges:

• • • The scale of the transition is immense. India will require approximately $22.7 trillion in cumulative investments by 2070, with nearly half directed towards the power sector. On an annualised basis, this amounts to around $500 billion per year, far exceeding current levels of clean-energy investment.
      • Financing gap: Even with structural improvements in capital markets, an estimated $6.5 trillion gap remains, likely to be bridged largely through external finance.
      • Land and water constraints: Competition between renewable energy infrastructure and agriculture intensifies, particularly in water-stressed regions.
      • Employment shifts: While the clean-energy transition can generate significant employment, uneven regional impacts necessitate targeted reskilling programmes and social-protection measures to prevent disruption.

Policy Prescriptions for a Sustainable Transition:

• • • Recognising the magnitude of the challenge, the report outlines several strategic interventions:
      • Demand-side measures: Enhancing energy efficiency, promoting behavioural change, enforcing stronger building codes, and adopting urban planning centred on public transport.
      • Financial reforms: Deepening bond markets, scaling blended finance, and establishing dedicated green-finance institutions to mobilise domestic and foreign capital.
      • Institutional coordination: Adopting a mission-mode governance framework under the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change to align actions across the Centre and states.

Conclusion:

India’s net-zero transition is presented not as a constraint on development but as a redefinition of it. If implemented effectively, it can anchor a cleaner, more resilient, and inclusive growth model, setting a global precedent for developing economies. However, delays would raise transition costs and risk carbon lock-in, underscoring the urgency of decisive action in the current decade.