Context:

Tensions in the Senkaku Islands region have recently escalated following a statement by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that "Japan may consider a military response if China attacks Taiwan." Following this statement, on November 16, 2025, Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ships also passed through the sea area near the Senkaku Islands.

About Senkaku Islands:

The Senkaku Islands are a group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that are the subject of a territorial dispute between Japan and China (known as the Diaoyu Islands).

·        They are administered by Japan but claimed by both China and Taiwan. The dispute is significant due to the islands' strategic importance, control of vital shipping lanes, rich fishing grounds, and potential hydrocarbon deposits.

Territorial dispute:

• • Japan's claim: Japan claims sovereignty over the islands (Senkaku) and has administered them since 1972, after they were returned by the United States following its administration post-World War II.
  • China's claim: China (Diaoyu) claims historical control dating back to the Ming dynasty, asserting Japan seized them during its imperial expansion.

Strategic Drivers behind the China's Patrol:

1.       Sovereignty Assertion

o    By using coast guard vessels, China asserts its claim over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands without overt military escalation.

2.      Retaliation to Japanese Provocations

o    Beijing’s patrol comes shortly after Tokyo’s assertive comments on Taiwan.

o    The operation signals that China is willing to push back diplomatically and operationally against what it perceives as provocative posturing by Japan.

3.      Long-Term Presence Strategy

o    According to Japanese official sources, CCG vessels have been operating near the Senkakus at multiple times.

o    Persistent patrols underscore Beijing’s aim to normalize its maritime presence.

4.     Domestic Signaling & Regional Power Projection

o    The patrol serves as a signal of Chinese resolve to domestic audiences, reinforcing nationalism around “territorial rights.”

Implications for Regional Security:

• • Risk of escalation: The potential for conflict between Chinese and Japanese coast guard or naval vessels increases.
  • Impact on the Japan-US alliance: The US has committed to supporting Japan in the defense of the Senkaku Islands under a security treaty. China's increasing activities put this treaty to the test.
  • Challenge to maritime rules: The use of coast guard vessels as paramilitary patrols blurs the line between law enforcement and military power projection. This challenges maritime rules and international norms in the Indo-Pacific region.

Conclusion:

The CCG patrol is viewed as part of China’s broader maritime approach, often described as “rights enforcement patrols,” where coast guard vessels are used to reinforce its territorial claims without involving the military directly.

For Japan and other regional countries, responding to such activities typically involves a mix of diplomatic engagement, clear legal positions, and cooperation with security partners to maintain stability and the existing maritime arrangements in the region.