Context:
Following Turkey and Azerbaijan’s explicit support for Pakistan after India’s military strikes during Operation Sindoor, a significant backlash emerged within India, marked by calls for boycotts of travel, trade, and educational exchanges with these countries.
Geopolitical Context:
- Turkey and Azerbaijan have a strong relationship with Pakistan that goes back many years. Turkey has supported Pakistan on the Kashmir issue and helped Azerbaijan during its conflict with Armenia, especially in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. In return, Pakistan has backed Turkey in disputes like the one over Cyprus.
- Their close ties also include military cooperation. Since the 1990s, Turkey has been selling weapons to Pakistan, including artillery and armored vehicles. On the other hand, India mainly exports weapons to Armenia and has no official arms deals with Turkey or Azerbaijan.
- Recently, tensions rose even more when Pakistan used Turkish-made Songar drones during border clashes with India. This move has added to the growing strain between India and Turkey.
Economic and Trade Relations:
· Trade Volume and Composition: India’s imports from Turkey and Azerbaijan constitute less than 1% of its total crude oil imports, indicating limited economic dependency. Turkey’s machinery exports to India—including nuclear reactors and boilers—also form a marginal share (~1%) of India’s import basket, with China and Germany dominating this sector.
o Azerbaijan, however, is more reliant on India for crude oil exports, with India being the third-largest buyer as of 2023. Despite this, an official trade ban by India would likely inflict greater economic losses on Azerbaijan than Turkey.
· Trade Boycotts and Industry Response: Indian trader associations and companies have proactively moved to boycott Turkish and Azerbaijani goods and services. Actions include suspending travel bookings, ending partnerships with Turkish airlines, and halting imports of Turkish apples. Political parties and trade groups have advocated for broader bans on Turkish imports and contracts, reflecting rising nationalist sentiments.
Tourism and Educational Exchanges:
- Turkey hosted approximately 330,000 Indian visitors in 2024, a sharp rise from around 120,000 in 2014.
- Azerbaijan saw an even more dramatic increase, with Indian arrivals jumping from under 5,000 in 2014 to nearly 244,000 in 2024.
- Indians’ share of tourists in Azerbaijan rose from 6% in 2023 to 10% in 2024.
Similarly, the number of Indian students studying in Turkey and Azerbaijan surged sevenfold from under 100 in 2017 to 777 by early 2024.
The boycott movement threatens these growing people-to-people ties. Travel platforms report a 50% or more drop in bookings, and some Indian tour operators have paused all packages to these countries.
Strategic and Diplomatic Implications:
- India risks alienating countries in Central Asia and the broader Turkic world by severing ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
- The boycott signals a hardening stance on India’s foreign relations, emphasizing nationalism and retaliatory diplomacy.
- Disruptions in educational and cultural exchanges may reduce India’s soft power influence in the region.
- Turkey and Azerbaijan may pivot more decisively toward Pakistan and China, further complicating India’s strategic calculus.
Conclusion:
India’s boycott of Turkey and Azerbaijan is more than a reactive nationalist sentiment; it reflects deepening geopolitical fissures in South Asia and beyond. Economically, India stands to lose little directly, but the diplomatic costs and long-term strategic consequences require careful consideration.
