Context:

The tragic stampede during a political leader’s rally in Karur, Tamil Nadu, has once again brought the issue of crowd safety into sharp focus. As people tried to climb a tree behind the political leader’s vehicle, they fell into the gathering, panic spread, and a deadly crush followed. Unfortunately, such incidents are not isolated. Religious festivals, sporting events, railway stations, and political gatherings in India have repeatedly witnessed stampedes leading to large-scale loss of life.

• • Data shows that between 2000 and 2022, more than 3,000 people lost their lives in stampedes across India. Nearly 4,000 incidents have been recorded over the last three decades. Recent years have seen tragedies in Hathras (2024), Prayagraj (2025), Tirupati (2025), and Bengaluru (2025), highlighting systemic shortcomings in crowd management.

What is a Stampede?

Researchers define a stampede as a sudden, impulsive mass movement of a crowd that disrupts order and results in injuries and fatalities. According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), stampedes usually occur when people perceive a loss of physical space or a danger, triggering irrational self-protective behavior.

Scholars classify them broadly into two categories:

1.       Unidirectional Stampedes – occur when a large crowd moving in the same direction encounters a sudden stop or obstruction, such as a blocked exit or broken barrier.

2.      Turbulent Stampedes – occur when uncontrolled crowds merge from different directions or panic spreads suddenly.

While trampling is often assumed to be the cause of death, research shows that the leading cause is compressive asphyxia. In dense gatherings, people are squeezed so tightly that breathing becomes impossible. This pressure, strong enough to bend steel, can be generated by just six or seven people pushing in one direction.

Causes of Stampedes in India:

Immediate Triggers

• • • Panic due to sudden events such as rumors, falling objects, or fire.
    • Obstructions like barricades, narrow exits, or slippery pathways.
    • Unexpected behavior such as a celebrity sighting or political leader’s arrival.

Systemic Failures

• • • Underestimation of crowd size and inadequate planning.
    • Poor coordination among organizers, police, and local administration.
    • Lack of clear roles and responsibilities for stakeholders.

Behavioral and Social Factors

• • • Disregard for safety norms and overconfidence in traditional practices.
    • Star power and celebrity influence drawing massive, unmanageable crowds.
    • Low risk awareness among participants.

Infrastructure Gaps

• • • Narrow entry and exit points, bottlenecks, and weak barricading.
    • Poor signage, lack of communication systems, and inadequate medical facilities.
    • Absence of structured evacuation routes.

Impacts of Stampedes:

Stampedes are among the deadliest forms of man-made disasters because of their suddenness and high fatality rates.

• • Human Cost: Immediate loss of life due to asphyxia or trampling, severe injuries, and psychological trauma for survivors.
  • Social Impact: Grief, anger, and erosion of public trust in authorities.
  • Economic Consequences: Decline in participation at future events, economic losses for organizers, and high compensation liabilities.
  • Governance Impact: Repeated scrutiny of safety protocols and growing public pressure for accountability.

NDMA Guidelines for Crowd Management:

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has laid down detailed guidelines to prevent crowd disasters. Key recommendations include:

1.       Pre-Event Planning

o    Proper crowd estimation and capacity planning.

o    Safe site selection, route design, and removal of bottlenecks.

o    Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) to assess hazards.

2.      Structural and Infrastructural Measures

o    Multiple wide entry and exit points with outward opening gates.

o    Barriers and zig-zag queues to regulate flow.

o    Multilingual signage and robust public address systems.

3.      On-Ground Management

o    Crowd segregation with barricades and regulated movement.

o    Real-time monitoring using CCTV and analytics.

o    Adequate traffic and parking arrangements.

4.     Emergency Preparedness

o    On-site medical aid, quick reaction teams, and mobile connectivity.

o    Incident Command System for quick decision-making.

5.     Public Awareness and Training

o    Regular drills for stakeholders and awareness campaigns for the public.

o    Clear SOPs for event managers, police, and volunteers.

Role of Technology:

• • RFID and IoT Tracking: Tagging pilgrims or visitors helps monitor density in real time, already tested at Kumbh Mela and Vaishno Devi.
  • AI-Driven Surveillance: CCTV cameras and drones equipped with AI can detect bottlenecks and panic behavior, enabling early interventions.
  • Drones with Thermal Imaging: Provide aerial monitoring of large gatherings.
  • Predictive Analytics: Using past data to forecast overcrowding and alert authorities before crises escalate.
  • Mobile Updates and Alerts: Crowd guidance through SMS, apps, and public digital boards.

Challenges in India:

• • Underestimation of Crowd Scale: Events in India often involve millions, far surpassing global averages.
  • Weak Enforcement: Disregard for rules and laxity in implementation remain common.
  • Coordination Gaps: Lack of communication between organizers, law enforcement, and local bodies.
  • Infrastructure Deficiencies: Outdated venues, narrow pathways, and insufficient exits.
  • Cultural Factors: Strong emotional or religious sentiments make crowd control difficult.
  • Resource Limitations: Shortage of trained personnel, medical aid, and surveillance equipment.

Global Best Practices:

• • Saudi Arabia (Hajj): Use of timed entry, simulations, and controlled route planning after past tragedies.
  • United Kingdom (Wembley Stadium): Infrastructure designed with multiple exits and advanced evacuation systems for 90,000 people.
  • South Korea (Halloween, 2022): Deployment of AI-based CCTV systems to monitor density in real time.
  • Japan: Staggered entry and timed tickets to avoid sudden crowding.

Way Forward:

1.       Scientific Planning: Accurate estimation of crowd size using data analytics and simulations.

2.      Infrastructure Upgradation: Re-engineering venues with wider exits, stronger barricades, and accessible medical facilities.

3.      Technology Integration: Nationwide adoption of AI-based surveillance, RFID systems, and predictive modeling.

4.     Training and Awareness: Regular drills for police, organizers, and volunteers; public campaigns on safe behavior.

5.     Strict Accountability: Legal responsibility for event organizers and public officials in case of lapses.

6.     Cultural Change: Building societal respect for rules, discipline, and personal safety norms.

Conclusion:

Stampedes are not “accidents” in the true sense; they are preventable disasters. The repeated occurrence of such tragedies in India highlights gaps not only in infrastructure and planning but also in enforcement and societal behavior. The NDMA guidelines provide a strong framework, and global examples show that tragedies can be minimized with strict compliance, modern technology, and prompt interventions. Ultimately, the goal should be to ensure that mass gatherings, whether for faith, festivals, sports, or politics, remain occasions of collective joy and not scenes of preventable death.