Context-

The emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a pivotal geopolitical arena has ushered India into a new era, freeing it from the constraints of continental dynamics dominated by China and Pakistan. However, recent events in the Red Sea have prompted a closer examination of whether this vast maritime space, initially seen as an ocean of opportunity, is now becoming a theatre of conflict and containment.

Red Sea Crisis

The Houthi terror attacks on commercial vessels navigating the Red Sea, notably the MV Chem Pluto and MV Sai Baba, have drawn India into a swift diplomatic and military response. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's visit to Tehran underscores India's commitment to cease these attacks, while the deployment of Indian Navy vessels highlights a proactive approach to safeguarding maritime interests.

Challenges in the Indo-Pacific

Beyond immediate concerns, a fundamental question arises regarding India's long-term vision for the Indo-Pacific. While the shift from a continental to a maritime focus is commendable, it presents a set of challenges that demand a comprehensive strategy beyond reactive measures. The Houthi challenge may dissipate with diplomatic efforts, but India must confront a more nuanced and complex two-front situation involving continental and maritime dimensions.

India's Two-Front Challenge

●      China's Dual Front Approach: India's traditional two-front challenge involving Pakistan and China has evolved. The focus is no longer solely on a continental nutcracker situation but encompasses a combination of continental and maritime challenges. China, with its aggressive posture, seeks to contain India on both fronts simultaneously. While the People's Liberation Army exerts pressure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) expands its presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

●      Naval Disparities:  A stark numerical contrast between the Chinese and Indian navies underscores the challenge. China's naval force, comprising over 370 ships and submarines, dwarfs India's fleet of 132 warships. Projections indicate that China's naval strength could surge to 435 ships by 2030. These numbers reflect not only China's growing maritime capabilities but also its strategic intentions in the Indo-Pacific.

●      Overseas Military Bases: China's establishment of a military base in Djibouti is just one facet of its broader strategy. Increased activities in Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), and strategic partnerships with nations like the Maldives and Seychelles reveal a systematic effort to encircle India in the Indo-Pacific. China's influence extends from the Horn of Africa to the Bay of Bengal, challenging India's historical dominance in these maritime spaces.

●      Global Outreach: India's Loss, China's Gain:- China's pursuit of strategic investments, naval bases, and partnerships in regions historically aligned with India signals a zero-sum game. From Africa to the Indian Ocean, China is displacing India in areas where historical, cultural, and political links were once strong. As China strengthens ties with West Asia and Africa, India faces the erosion of its traditional spheres of influence.

Charting India's Course in the Indo-Pacific

●      Utilizing Global Attention: India must leverage the growing global interest in the Indo-Pacific to forge coalitions with like-minded nations. As the region becomes a focal point for major powers, India has an opportunity to align with countries sharing concerns about China's expanding influence. Collaborative efforts could safeguard not only India's interests but also those of the United States and its allies.

●      Partnerships: Recognizing its pivotal role in the Indo-Pacific, India should actively seek partnerships with nations that share common concerns regarding China's rise. While initiatives like the Quad and Malabar exercises are steps in the right direction, a more robust and cohesive approach is necessary. Strengthening ties with regional players can enhance India's ability to counterbalance China's growing power.

●      Developing a Comprehensive Indo-Pacific Strategy:  India's response cannot be confined to ad-hoc measures or reactive strategies. A well-thought-out and cohesive Indo-Pacific strategy is imperative. While current initiatives provide elements of such a strategy, they need integration into a broader framework that addresses long-term challenges. The vision should extend beyond naval exercises and incremental budget increases to encompass a comprehensive approach.

●      The Dilemma of Collective Efforts: India's decision not to join the U.S.-led 'Operation Prosperity Guardian' raises questions about its long-term approach. While the move may be justified in the short term, the efficacy of countering China's maritime ambitions without active participation in collective efforts remains to be determined. Striking a balance between national interests and collaborative endeavors will be a crucial aspect of India's evolving strategy.

Conclusion

While the immediate Red Sea crisis may subside, India's two-front challenge, comprising both continental and maritime dimensions, is here to stay. As geopolitical dynamics evolve, New Delhi must embrace a proactive and forward-looking approach to safeguard its interests in the Indo-Pacific. The era of occasional fire-fighting and incremental naval measures must give way to a comprehensive maritime grand strategy that aligns with India's newfound role on the global stage. The choices made today will shape India's standing in the Indo-Pacific for years to come.

Source- The Hindu