India’s strong response to a recent provocation by Pakistan in Pahalgam has brought fresh attention to the complex and evolving dynamics of regional geopolitics. More than just a military reaction, this moment marks a turning point for Indian foreign and security policy. The situation underscores the need for India to reassess its regional strategy in the face of new realities — especially the deepening China-Pakistan axis, a shifting US role, and the multipolar global order.

The Emerging Sino-Pakistan Axis:

The China-Pakistan relationship is no longer just a long-standing strategic partnership — it has grown into a practical, military-oriented alliance. This alignment is troubling for India because:

• Conventional Parity: Despite India’s larger and more advanced conventional forces, limited, high-stakes conflicts under the nuclear threshold reduce this advantage. Pakistan has, for all practical purposes, become a near-peer competitor.
• Chinese Military Support: China has invested heavily in upgrading its military, especially for electronic warfare, intelligence, long-range missiles, and advanced aircraft. Some of these capabilities are now available to Pakistan, strengthening its conventional forces further.

o    Reports indicated China provided satellite and air-defense assistance to Pakistan just before Islamabad claimed to have downed Indian fighter jets, including Rafales.

o    Pakistan allegedly used a Chinese PL-15 missile—its first known use in combat—and announced expedited acquisition plans for China’s J-35A stealth jets.

o    Pakistan’s foreign minister confirmed deployment of Chinese J-10C jets and noted close real-time coordination with the Chinese ambassador during the conflict.

• Future Risks: China's growing support may allow Pakistan to match or even outpace India in select areas like surveillance, air power, and missile technology.

o    Scale of Investment: Over $46 billion has been invested in infrastructure, power generation, and connectivity projects linking Gwadar Port and Karachi to Xinjiang.

o    CPEC 2.0: Announced in January, this second phase includes industrialization, agriculture, IT, energy, and livelihood projects.

Trilateral Diplomacy: China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan:

Simultaneously, China is expanding its influence in regional diplomacy, particularly through mediation between Pakistan and Afghanistan:

• Background: Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, responsible for a 70% surge in attacks in 2024. Afghanistan has denied these claims.
• Chinese Mediation: A trilateral meeting involving the foreign ministers of China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in May 2025 revived the dialogue mechanism established in 2023. Following this, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to:
• Re-establish diplomatic missions.
• Extend CPEC into Afghanistan.

India’s Military Options and Limitations:

• Diverse Military Partnerships: Unlike Western countries, India’s defense cooperation with Russia has fewer political strings attached. This helps India combine advanced technology imports with its growing indigenous defense capabilities.
• Nuclear and Conventional Deterrence: India’s strategic deterrent — both nuclear and conventional — is strong and stable. It can handle major escalations.

However, pursuing an arms race with China or Pakistan is not sustainable or strategic. The real challenge lies in countering asymmetric warfare, including terror attacks, cyber disruptions, and other non-traditional threats, especially from Pakistan. Here, India must adopt a strategy of calibrated cost imposition, where responses are tailored to inflict real consequences without triggering full-scale war.

Big-Picture Questions for Indian Policymakers:

• Alignment with the US: Over the past decade, India leaned heavily towards the US to counterbalance China. But this China-centric alignment pushed Beijing closer to Pakistan. At the same time, the US had little appetite for a strategic confrontation with China in South Asia. Its interest was mainly in India’s maritime role in the Indo-Pacific.
• While US-brokered ceasefires have historically found acceptance, Washington’s sale of F-16s to Pakistan and interest in its mineral wealth offer only limited counterbalance to China’s strategic weight.
• Neglected Regional Strategy: India’s growing closeness with the US didn’t translate into greater regional leverage. Instead, it allowed China and the US to tacitly accept Pakistan’s continued dominance in the regional order — especially the central role of the Pakistan army.
• Missed Opportunities: India expected strategic benefits from aligning with the West, but the returns were mixed. During the Pahalgam crisis, neither China nor the US took clear positions that favoured Indian interests.

Rebalancing the Strategy:

1.       Engaging China Constructively
China’s main security focus is in the east — the Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific. This offers an opening. India can build on the 2024 diplomatic thaw and explore a framework to normalise relations with China. The goal is not to trust blindly, but to reduce hostility and discourage Beijing’s reliance on Pakistan as a regional proxy.

2.      Realistic Expectations from the US
Whether under a Trump or non-Trump administration, the US is unlikely to directly counter China in South Asia. India should stop assuming that American backing will automatically translate into regional dominance.

3.      Building Indigenous Power
The only long-term path to strategic influence is through domestic strength — in industrial capacity, high technology, human capital, and economic scale. This is how major powers gain real leverage. External alliances can help, but they cannot substitute for internal capabilities.

Conclusion:

India must avoid being dragged into a low-level, never-ending competition with the Pakistan army or playing proxy games in the US-China rivalry. The current crisis offers a unique opportunity to rethink and reshape India’s grand strategy for a multipolar world. This means:

• Rejecting geopolitical shortcuts.
• Investing in domestic capacity-building.
• Pursuing a balanced approach to China.
• Recognising the limits of external alignments.

India’s future as a major power will depend not on short-term tactical wins, but on a sophisticated, long-range strategy rooted in realism, resilience, and regional wisdom.