Context:

Recently, Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes on strategic locations in Yemen, including port infrastructure, marking a fresh escalation in the protracted Yemeni conflict. The strikes have attracted international attention as they reflect not only Saudi Arabia’s security concerns but also the deepening regional fault lines within the Gulf and the fragile state of ongoing peace efforts in Yemen.

Background:

• • • Yemen has been engulfed in civil war since 2014, when the Iran-backed Houthi rebels overthrew the internationally recognised government. In 2015, Saudi Arabia led a coalition, which included the United Arab Emirates, to restore the Yemeni government and counter Houthi influence.
    • Over time, the conflict evolved into a complex proxy war involving regional rivalries, multiple local factions, and a severe humanitarian crisis, displacing millions and leaving large sections of the population dependent on external aid.

Immediate Triggers of the Saudi Airstrikes:

• • • Saudi Arabia justified the recent attacks by citing national security threats, asserting that weapons shipments and military assets operating within Yemen could destabilise its borders. Reports also suggest that the strikes were linked to concerns over arms transfers involving southern Yemeni factions, particularly the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is backed by the UAE. This development marks a significant shift, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, previously aligned in Yemen, now differ over the country’s political future.

Diverging Regional Interests:

• • • The airstrikes underline growing fractures within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC):
      • Saudi Arabia prioritises a unified Yemen under the internationally recognised government to prevent long-term instability along its borders.
      • The UAE, by contrast, has supported the STC, which seeks greater autonomy or even independence for southern Yemen.
      • These divergent interests have weakened the anti-Houthi coalition and complicated peace negotiations, thereby reducing the prospects for a coherent and unified political settlement.

Humanitarian and Regional Implications:

• • • Renewed military action risks aggravating Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, already among the worst in the world. Damage to ports and critical infrastructure threatens the flow of food and fuel supplies in a country heavily reliant on imports.
    • At the regional level, instability in Yemen directly affects the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb maritime corridor, which are vital for global trade and energy security. Continued escalation could also embolden non-state actors and expand Iran’s strategic influence in the region.

Way Forward:

• • • Saudi Arabia’s attack on Yemen highlights the fragility of regional security arrangements and the limitations of military solutions. A sustainable peace process requires:
      • De-escalation among Gulf states, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE
      • Inclusive peace negotiations involving all Yemeni stakeholders under United Nations mediation
      • Prioritisation of humanitarian access, ceasefire enforcement, and post-conflict reconstruction
      • Without renewed diplomatic momentum, Yemen risks sliding deeper into instability, with far-reaching consequences for regional security and global trade.