Context:

China has recently started work on a massive $170 billion hydropower project on the Yarlung Zangbo River, which flows into India as the Brahmaputra. Beijing presents this project as a major step for economic growth and clean energy. However, India sees it as a cause for serious concern, both in terms of strategic security and environmental impact, making it a new flashpoint in regional geopolitics.

About the project:

The project, set to be China’s largest infrastructure effort since the Three Gorges Dam, is located just before the river enters Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as “South Tibet.” This adds a clear geopolitical angle to the issue. Beyond territorial concerns, the dam has raised fears about flood risks, ecological damage, and China’s strategic control over water resources.

Key features:

• Five cascade dams to be constructed in series
• Planned capacity of 60 GW — nearly three times larger than the Three Gorges Dam
• Construction and operation to be handled by the newly formed China Yajiang Group Co. Ltd

What remains unclear is the extent of water storage involved. This ambiguity is central to India's fears.

India’s Concerns:

1. Flood Risk: “Water Bomb” Scenario

Sudden water release from the Chinese dam could devastate the Siang region, the Indian name for the river in Arunachal. This raises concerns about plausible “water weaponization”, either as:

• A deliberate release during military or diplomatic tension
• Or an accidental outburst, with little or no warning

2. Ecological Fragility

The Siang Valley is home to diverse tribal communities like the Adi people, and is ecologically rich. Large water surges or drying up of flows can affect:

• Agriculture
• Fisheries
• Biodiversity
• Livelihoods of indigenous communities

3. Hydropower Competition

The Northeast accounts for nearly half of India’s untapped 133 GW hydropower potential—much of it downstream from China’s project.
Disruption in water flow could:

• Undermine India's own hydro projects
• Affect power generation planning
• Deter private investment in the region

India’s Planned Response:

To counter China’s strategic head-start, India has proposed the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project, a massive 11.2 GW dam in Arunachal Pradesh.

Strategic goals:

• Regulate river flow and absorb shocks from sudden water release
• Store excess water during floods and release it during dry spells
• Serve as India’s largest hydropower project once completed

Current Status:

• Pre-feasibility studies were ordered in 2022
• NHPC Ltd is the implementing agency
• Progress has been slow, mainly due to local resistance and ecological concerns

Conclusion:

China’s new dam near Arunachal is not just a hydropower project—it’s a strategic chess move, a potential environmental time-bomb, and a reminder of the urgency India faces in defending its river systems and people.

India’s response must be multi-dimensional—balancing speed with sustainability, diplomacy with deterrence, and strategic foresight with environmental care. As water becomes the next frontier of geopolitics, New Delhi cannot afford to fall behind upstream.