Context:

China recently hosted an “informal” trilateral dialogue with high-level participation from Pakistan and Afghanistan. The meeting, led by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistani Deputy PM Ishaq Dar, and Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, concluded with an agreement to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan.

• Beyond infrastructure, the dialogue emphasized on growing security cooperation, trade expansion, and political normalization between Islamabad and Kabul—with Beijing as both broker and benefactor.

CPEC Expansion: Strategic Context and Objectives:

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a $62 billion infrastructure and connectivity initiative, links China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port through an extensive network of highways, railways, and energy projects. Launched in 2015, CPEC is a flagship component of the BRI.

Extension to Afghanistan:
By extending CPEC into Afghanistan, China aims to:

• Establish an overland economic artery linking Central and South Asia.
• Stabilize Afghanistan through economic integration.
• Secure its western front via diplomatic and economic leverage.
• Counterbalance India’s regional connectivity initiatives such as the Chabahar Port project.

Geopolitical Implications for India:

·        Sovereignty Concerns: India staunchly opposes CPEC as it traverses Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), territory claimed by India. Any third-party engagement in this corridor is seen by New Delhi as a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

·        Strategic Encirclement: CPEC’s expansion risks strategically encircling India, enhancing China’s influence in South Asia and providing Pakistan with an economic corridor that may facilitate greater military mobility.

·        Regional Rivalry Intensification: India’s engagement with the Taliban has increased since 2021, focusing on development and humanitarian aid. However, China's backing of Pakistan-Afghanistan ties may marginalize India’s diplomatic foothold in Kabul and limit its reach into Central Asia.

·        Security Concerns: Historically, Afghanistan has hosted anti-India militant groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. There is concern that increased coordination between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan could create space for strategic or covert operations detrimental to India’s interests.

India’s Strategic Dilemma and Future Options:

India finds itself at a critical juncture. Although, India has made inroads with the Taliban leadership, the growing trilateral alignment poses a long-term strategic challenge as:

·         India's Chabahar-centric connectivity vision is under pressure.

·         Its options in Central Asia may narrow unless new alliances or infrastructure partnerships are forged.

·         It may need to escalate engagement with Kabul or reposition its influence using multilateral frameworks (e.g., SCO, INSTC).

Conclusion:

The trilateral cooperation between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, symbolized by CPEC’s extension marks a tectonic shift in South Asia’s geopolitical balance. It challenges India’s strategic space, complicates its regional diplomacy, and necessitates a recalibration of New Delhi’s policy toward Afghanistan, regional trade, and great power competition. As China positions itself as both broker and benefactor, the coming years will test India's agility in safeguarding its strategic interests.