Context:
India has launched the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS), the world’s highest-resolution operational weather forecasting model, marking a significant step forward in meteorological science. With a resolution of 6 kilometres, the system aims to provide more localised and accurate forecasts for small-scale weather events, aiding sectors like agriculture, disaster management, and public safety.
About the Bharat Forecasting System
The Bharat Forecasting System is a numerical weather prediction model developed to provide granular weather forecasts. It covers the tropical region between 30° South and 30° North latitudes, which includes the entire Indian mainland.
Key Features:
- Resolution: 6 km x 6 km grid
- Coverage: Tropical region (including all of India)
- Technology Support: Runs on the new ‘Arka’ supercomputer
- Output: More accurate short-, medium-, and nowcasts (up to 2-hour forecasts)
This is a substantial upgrade from earlier models that operated at a 12 km resolution, which offered coarser predictions with less spatial accuracy.
About Supercomputer Arka:
The Bharat Forecasting System is powered by ‘Arka’, a high-performance computing system installed at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
- Processing Speed: 11.77 petaflops
- Data Storage: 33 petabytes
- Performance: Processes complex forecast models 2.5x faster than the older supercomputer, Pratyush
- Forecast Time: Reduced from 10 hours to 4 hours
Data Sources and Infrastructure:
The model integrates data from a network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars across India. These radars help capture real-time data on rainfall, cloud movement, wind speed, and other critical parameters. The radar network is expected to expand to 100 radars, enabling nowcasting (2-hour forecasts) for most parts of the country.
Significance of the System:
1. Disaster Risk Reduction
The BFS will help predict:
- Cyclones
- Thunderstorms
- Heavy rainfall
- Flash floods
- Heatwaves and cold waves
2. Agricultural Planning
Accurate weather forecasting supports:
- Crop planning and sowing decisions
- Irrigation scheduling
- Protection from frost, heat stress, and unseasonal rain
3. Economic Stability and Inflation Management
Weather conditions directly affect agricultural output and, in turn, food prices. The Economic Survey 2024 notes that:
- Extreme weather damaged more crops in 2024 than in the previous two years.
- Heatwave frequency rose sharply: 18% of days between 2022–2024 experienced heatwaves, up from 5% in 2020–21.
- Food inflation has remained a concern, partly due to climate variability.
4. Policy and Governance Applications
The BFS enhances the government’s ability to:
- Issue panchayat-level weather alerts
- Strengthen climate-resilient infrastructure planning
- Improve water resource and reservoir management
- Support rural development and disaster resilience
Comparison with Global Systems:
- The BFS operates at a 6 km resolution, compared to:
- 9–14 km in the US, UK, and EU forecast models.
- This makes the BFS the most precise operational weather model in the world, especially tailored for tropical conditions.
Conclusion:
The Bharat Forecasting System is a major scientific and technological milestone for India. As climate risks grow, tools like the BFS will be essential for safeguarding livelihoods and ensuring sustainable development.
