Prices and Inflation: Successful Tight - Rope Walking

• While the year 2022 witnessed a return of high inflation in the advanced world after three to four decades, India caps the rise in prices.
• While India’s retail inflation rate peaked at 7.8 per cent in April 2022, above the RBI’s upper tolerance limit of 6 per cent, the overshoot of inflation above the upper end of the target range in India was however one of the lowest in the world.
• The government adopted a multipronged approach to tame the increase in price levels:

• Phase wise reduction in export duty of petrol and diesel
• Import duty on major inputs were brought to zero while tax on export of iron ores and concentrates increased from 30 to 50 per cent
• Waived customs duty on cotton imports w.e.f 14 April 2022, until 30 September 2022
• Prohibition on the export of wheat products under HS Code 1101 and imposition of export duty on rice
• Reduction in basic duty on crude and refined palm oil, crude soyabean oil and crude sunflower oil

• The RBI’s anchoring of inflationary expectations through forward guidance and responsive monetary policy has helped guide the trajectory of inflation in the country.
• The one-year-ahead inflationary expectations by both businesses and households have moderated in the current financial year.
• Timely policy intervention by the government in housing sector, coupled with low home loan interest rates propped up demand and attracted buyers more readily in the affordable segment in FY23.
• An overall increase in composite Housing Price Indices (HPI) assessment and Housing Price Indices market prices indicates a revival in the housing finance sector. A stable to moderate increase in HPI also offers
  confidence to homeowners and home loan financiers in terms of the retained value of the asset.
• India’s inflation management has been particularly noteworthy and can be contrasted with advanced economies that are still grappling with sticky inflation rates.

External Sector

• Merchandise exports were US$ 332.8 billion for April-December 2022.
• India diversified its markets and increased its exports to Brazil, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
• To increase its market size and ensure better penetration, in 2022, CEPA with UAE and ECTA with Australia come into force.
• India is the largest recipient of remittances in the world receiving US$ 100 bn in 2022. Remittances are the second largest major source of external financing after service export
• As of December 2022, Forex Reserves stood at US$ 563 bn covering 9.3 months of imports.
• As of end-November 2022, India is the sixth largest foreign exchange reserves holder in the world.
• The current stock of external debt is well shielded by the comfortable level of foreign exchange reserves.
• India has relatively low levels of total debt as a percentage of Gross National Income and short-term debt as a percentage of total debt.